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Behavioral Workshop - Alice Hsiaw

Tue, 09/19/2017 - 11:40am

Alice Hsiaw

Brandeis University

141 Sage Hall

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Persistent disagreement about substance and expert credibility often go hand in hand. Prominent examples include disagreements in economics, climate science, and medicine. We argue that disagreement arises because individuals overinterpret how much they can learn when both substance and expert credibility are uncertain. Our proposed learning bias predicts that: 1) Disagreement about credibility drives disagree-ment about substance; 2) First impressions of credibility drive long-lasting disagree-ment; 3) Distrust is difficult to unravel; 4) Encountering experts in different order generates disagreement; and 5) Confirmation bias and/or its opposite arise endoge-nously. These effects provide a theory of the origins of disagreement.

Event Categories: Behavioral Economics & BEDR